Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
